Social media and interstate rivalry: investigating public sentiment as a catalyst for intensified hostility

Abstract

Introduction: In writing that “Wars of rivalry are not decided upon by a unitary rational calculator, but by the inexorable movement of an entire society”(2009:216), Vasquez succinctly captures that which this dissertation will endeavor to explore - the importance of the role domestic level politics play in the escalation of interstate rivalry. Whilst Vasquez‟ research aimed toward establishing criteria for the domestic political conditions most predictive of war, this dissertation is, in comparison, limited to only examining the role of public sentiment expressed on social media and how it may influence the escalation of hostilities between interstate rivals. At the core of both studies however, is the assertion that domestic politics constitute a vital part of the complex casual factors which drive and entrench interstate rivalry, the importance of which is underlined by Valeriano, when he observes that “rivalries are almost impossible to terminate if both the public and leadership do not agree to end the hostile relationship… Domestic opinion can either force the continuation of a rivalry or induce peace”(2013:28-9). Considering the advances in recent years in new internet based social media technologies which have seen the increasing integration of the internet into day-to-day political activity, allowing public expression and interaction in a more instant and open forum than ever before(Farrell,2012:36), it is thus possible to argue that further research into the opportunities facilitated by these new social media platforms for expressing public sentiment, is an area of paramount importance which merits further investigation.
The value of this research thus lies in the both the originality of this study and in its overall aim. As Valeriano notes, there is in an intrinsic importance in studying the causes of interstate rivalries, as rival states are “likely to fight wars and engage in frequent conflict, and they tend to avoid dealing with internal problems and reform. Solving the dilemma of rivalry will remove many

obstacles that impede international progress and domestic harmony. Ending the scourge of rivalry will be an important step towards international peace”(2013:50). Surprisingly, given the importance of this area of research, there remains little research into what Vasquez terms the „domestic prerequisites for war‟(2009:216). As early as 2005 Colaresi suggested that research of “the interaction between domestic and international politics calls for new measures, data, and historical research that capture these concepts”(2005:236), and despite subsequent technological advances enabling the systematic capture of online communications which allow research of this nature, there has not been much further research investigating the role domestic sentiment, facilitated by new social media, may play in dispute escalation.
The central research question of this dissertation therefore seeks to ask how public sentiment expressed on the social media platform Twitter may contribute to the inflammation or escalation of interstate rivalry. In pursuing this question, I aim to establish how the emergence of this new forum for public discussion may feed into existing academic research concerning domestic public opinion and its role in the entrenchment or escalation of interstate rivalries, arguing that negative and hostile sentiment espoused on Twitter can be linked to dispute escalation in the wake of a crisis event within an interstate rivalry. To this end, I draw on cultural theory to examine how the collective motives and identities of a given society may determine its behavior in the international arena, re-contextualizing interstate rivalry within cultural theory‟s conceptual parameters in order to understand more fully the relationship between the domestic and interstate levels of analysis.
With regards to the structure of this research, I aim to develop my argument across five main sections, conducting in chapter one a review of literature to identify the key themes and issues which will affect my own research, before introducing the theoretical concepts from cultural theory upon which my analysis will hinge in chapter two, whilst developing in chapter three a methodological framework which allows me to explore more rigorously my research question, along with the use of an opinion mining program - SentiStrength - to determine the strength of
sentiment expressed on Twitter. Chapters four and five detail my main analysis of the two cases of interstate rivalry selected in order to test my hypotheses - that of the upsurge in tension arising between People‟s Republic of China and Japan regarding the purchase of the disputed Senkaku(also known as Diaoyu) Islands in September 2012, followed by the hostilities enacted by the Russian Federation and Ukraine during the annexation of Crimea in late February and early March 2014. Finally, I conclude by examining the wider implications and limitations of my research for the field as a whole.