Signaling in cyber disputes

Abstract

As states begin to deploy cyber tactics as part of their wider strategic arsenal questions
arise around how these cyber tactics may alter the processes of international
relations, including those pertaining to coercive diplomacy and inter-state negotiation.
This dissertation endeavours to address the possibility that states may utilize
cyber tactics to signal their resolve to the bargaining approach or policy stance
adopted by their leaders during periods of interstate crises, asking what impact
such cyber-signals may have on dispute dynamics in terms of escalating or restraining
hostilities between the disputants.
To do so it has employed a multi-method approach, applying Schultz’s model of
signaling during crisis bargaining to three qualitative case studies, drawn from
each of the three kinds of cyber disputes identified by Valeriano and Maness in
their pioneering Dyadic Cyber Incident and Dispute dataset(2015). Additionally,
this in-depth contextual analysis is supplemented with a basic statistical analysis
of the DCID data-set combined with that of the Correlates of War Militarized Interstate
Dispute data(Ken- wick et al. 2013) to compare such basic dispute features
as length and severity be- tween cases, in order to identify wider trends between
the varying strategic environments in which each of the three case study
dyads operate.
Though it was posited that cyber-signals would have impact when acknowledged
by the perpetrating state and visible to the domestic audiences able to pressure on
state leaders during the decision making process, evidence did not support this
hypothesis across every case studied. Despite this line of inquiry failing to be fulfilled
universally, between them these three cases do still indicate that there are
indeed circumstances under which states may deploy impactful cyber-signals, albeit
driven by particular, salient or emotive contextual settings. I therefore conclude,
upon reflection, that while not perfect, this dissertation finds grounds for
further investigation of the cyber signal concept and represents at least a start to
unpicking the complex issues which underpin this vital area of international relations.