Investigating the impact of the 2015 Cumbrian floods on political trust and voting behaviour

Abstract

When do natural disasters become political disasters? During the 5th and 6th December 2015, Storm Desmond hit the county of Cumbria, resulting in wide-spread devastation. The political consequences of natural disasters have previously been explored within the US; investigating the disaster/politics relationship in the context of the UK is absent from current literature. The aim of the research is to explore how political trust levels were affected by government performance in regard to the 2015 Cumbrian floods. It further aims to understand the wider political consequences concerning voting behaviour in the 2016 EU referendum and how the local media framed the disaster. The study adopts a mixed method approach through conducting eight semi-structured interviews and a content analysis of local newspaper stories. Citizens display less trust in the national government, appearing critical of both the level of preparedness in place, and the slow response in the recovery process. Trust in the local government appears more stable, with positive evaluations exhibited regarding the relief efforts. Positive evaluations are also displayed towards local Westmorland and Lonsdale MP Tim Farron. The local media were critical of the national government and the EU; presenting a more favourable stance towards the local government and local MP. The floods also influenced the voting behaviour of respondents regarding their reasoning towards voting leave in the 2016 EU referendum. The findings have implications for UK government policies towards flood prevention.