Rebels with a cause: Self-determination groups' uses of indiscriminate political violence, 1970-2005

Abstract

In this paper I explore self-determination groups’ uses of indiscriminate violence against the state and coethnics. I argue that such behaviour is deeply paradoxical, ineffective, and counterproductive: indiscriminate political violence against the state provokes a backlash against oneself and one’s people, its use against coethnics is delegitimising and self-defeating, and in any case indiscriminate violence is by nature incapable of producing compliance with one’s goals. Despite this, self-determination groups across the world have engaged in lengthy and intense campaign of indiscriminate political violence. Using a newly compiled and coded dataset, I develop and test several potential explanations for this phenomenon using logistic regressions. I argue that the relatively large cost of selective violence, extensive state repression, internal competition between factions, and the institutionalisation of indiscriminate political violence as a standard operating procedure increase the likelihood of its use against the state. Internal competition between factions for hegemony over the self-determination group, and the institutionalisation of the behaviour, lead to greater likelihood of indiscriminate political violence against coethnics. I provide an initial set of insights into self-determination groups’ uses of indiscriminate political violence, and suggest new directions for future research.