An investigation into the effects of interstate rivalry on poverty in non-OECD states between 1981-1999

Abstract

This thesis aims to explore the relationship between interstate rivals and state building in the form of
poverty reduction. Previous research on state building has focused on the relationship between
external rivalries and the extraction of resources or the increase of economic production. This study
seeks to expand on the body of research by examining the impact of external (interstate) rivals on
poverty reduction. First, it begins by explaining Tilly’s (1992) bellicose model of war and state
building, and investigates how it can be adapted to non-OECD states, engaging with current literature
in the process. Then it considers some objections to the application of this model to the non-OECD
states and the direction of the relationship of the model, concluding the literature review by explaining
the causal mechanisms expected to result in poverty reduction. The study then runs a number of
comparative statistical regressions on a pooled cross-sectional time-series dataset, measuring poverty,
rivalry and control variables tri-annually from 103 non-OECD states between 1981 and 1999. The
results of these tests support the general hypothesis that interstate rivalry reduces poverty, regardless
of regime type. The causal mechanisms are then demonstrated by examining the crucial case study of
Bangladesh during the Indo-Bangladesh rivalry, supporting the proposed causal mechanisms and the
proposed direction of the relationship. The thesis then concludes by discussing moral considerations,
policy advice, limitations of the study and future research directions.